The use of a figure of merit – the probability of ignition – is proposed for the characterization of the ignition performance of projected ignition tokamaks. Monte Carlo and analytic models have been developed to compute the uncertainty distribution function for ignition of a given tokamak design, in terms of the uncertainties inherent in the tokamak physics database. A sample analysis with this method indicates that the risks of not achieving ignition may be unacceptably high unless the accepted margins for ignition are increased.