Model for access and stability of the X-point radiator and the threshold for marfes in tokamak plasmas

Based on particle and energy balances, a reduced model is derived for the physical mechanisms leading to the occurrence of stable and unstable X-point radiators (XPRs), the latter also known as marfes. The leading roles of the neutral deuterium density in the divertor region for initiating XPRs is highlighted. An access condition is formulated whose parameter dependencies are consistent with experimental observations and which could also apply to the process of divertor detachment. With an exponential increase of the recombination rate at low temperature, the XPR becomes magnetohydrodynamically unstable, leading to a marfe and, possibly, to a disruption. A critical density for marfe occurrence is formulated with the upstream density and safety factor as leading parameters, as in the experiment. Marfes are predicted to be more likely in carbon devices than in impurity-seeded plasmas in tungsten devices. The edge plasma parameter domain where marfes occur resembles that used for active marfe avoidance schemes. Both the XPR and marfe occurrence parameter can be used to guide active discharge control.