We develop a predictive theory applicable to the scrape-off layer (SOL) of inner-wall limited plasmas. Using the non-linear flattening of the pressure profile as a saturation mechanism for resistive ballooning modes, we are able to demonstrate and quantify the increase of the SOL width with plasma size, connection length, plasma β, and collisionality. Individual aspects of the theory, such as saturation physics, parallel dynamics, and system size scaling, are tested and verified using non-linear, 3D flux-driven SOL turbulence simulations. Altogether, very good agreement between theory and simulation is found.