In this paper we discuss a procedure to evaluate the fusion performance of ASDEX Upgrade discharges scaled up to ITER. The kinetic profile shape is taken from the measured profiles. Multiplication factors are used to obtain a fixed Greenwald fraction and an ITER normalized thermal pressure as in the corresponding ASDEX Upgrade discharge. The toroidal field and the plasma geometry are taken from the ITER-FEAT design (scenario 2), whereas q95 is taken from the experiment. The confinement time is inferred assuming that the measured H-factor with respect to several existing scaling laws also holds for ITER. While retaining the information contained in the multi-machine databases underlying the different scaling laws, this approach adds profile effects and confinement improvement with respect to the ITER baseline, thus including recent experimental evidence such as the prediction of peaked density profiles in ITER. Under this set of assumptions, of course not unique, we estimate the ITER performance on the basis of a wide database of ASDEX Upgrade H-mode discharges, in terms of fusion power, fusion gain and triple product. According to the three scalings considered, there is a finite probability of reaching ignition, while more than half of the discharges require less auxiliary power than the one foreseen for ITER. For all the scaling laws, high values of the thermal βN up to 2.4 are accessible. A sensitivity study gives an estimate of the accuracy of the extrapolation. The impact of different levels of tungsten concentration on the fusion performance is also studied in this paper. This scaling method is used to verify some common 0D figures of merit of ITER's fusion performance.
在本文中，我们讨论了一种评估从ASDEX Upgrade放电外推到ITER的聚变性能的方法。动力学剖面形状取自实测剖面。使用倍增因子来获得固定的格林沃尔德份额和与相应ASDEX Upgrade放电中相同的ITER归一化热压力。环向场和等离子体几何取自ITER-FEAT设计（情景2），而q95取自实验。约束时间通过假设相对于若干现有定标律测得的H因子也适用于ITER来推断。在保留不同定标律所基于的多机数据库所含信息的同时，该方法加入了相对于ITER基线的剖面效应和约束改善，从而包含了近期实验证据，如ITER中峰值密度的预测。在这一组假设下（当然并非唯一），我们基于广泛的ASDEX Upgrade H模放电数据库，以聚变功率、聚变增益和三乘积来评估ITER的性能。根据所考虑的三种定标律，存在达到点火状态的有限概率，而超过一半的放电所需的辅助功率低于为ITER预设的功率。对于所有定标律，热βN的高值可达2.4。敏感性研究给出了外推精度的估计。本文还研究了不同钨浓度水平对聚变性能的影响。该定标方法用于验证ITER聚变性能的某些常见0维品质因数。