In this paper, edge stability analyses of the MAST tokamak plasmas are presented. The analyses show that the experimental equilibrium prior to an edge localized mode (ELM) is unstable against very narrow peeling modes with low growth rate. When the edge pressure gradient becomes steeper, wider peeling–ballooning modes with larger growth rate become unstable. These modes are the likely triggers of ELMs. In the analyses the required pressure increase for destabilization is sensitive to how the X-point is modelled in the equilibrium reconstruction. A 'sharp' X-point approximation is more stable against the peeling–ballooning modes than a 'round' one. An experimental ELM-free single null plasma is significantly more stable against the peeling–ballooning modes than the double null plasma, but this is unlikely to be directly due to the single null geometry but rather due to the different plasma profiles. Sheared toroidal rotation is able to stabilize the peeling–ballooning modes. This suggests the following model for the ELM triggering: the rotation shear keeps the edge stable until the pressure gradient has sufficiently exceeded the stability boundary for the static plasma. When the mode becomes unstable, it starts to grow, ties the flux surfaces together and flattens the rotation profile. This further destabilizes the edge plasma leading to an ELM crash.