Statistical validation of predictive TRANSP simulations of baseline discharges in preparation for extrapolation to JET D–T

This paper presents for the first time a statistical validation of predictive TRANSP simulations of plasma temperature using two transport models, GLF23 and TGLF, over a database of 80 baseline H-mode discharges in JET-ILW. While the accuracy of the predicted Te with TRANSP-GLF23 is affected by plasma collisionality, the dependency of predictions on collisionality is less significant when using TRANSP-TGLF, indicating that the latter model has a broader applicability across plasma regimes. TRANSP-TGLF also shows a good matching of predicted Ti with experimental measurements allowing for a more accurate prediction of the neutron yields. The impact of input data and assumptions prescribed in the simulations are also investigated in this paper. The statistical validation and the assessment of uncertainty level in predictive TRANSP simulations for JET-ILW-DD will constitute the basis for the extrapolation to JET-ILW-DT experiments.