The injection of light impurity granules into fusion research discharges has shown a great potential for ELM pacing in future nuclear devices. The present work employed a model considering both pellet ablation and transport to systematically study for the first time the evolution of both impurity Li species and target plasma in the edge plasma during single and repeated Li pellet injections, with all initial information extracted from the EAST experiments. The evolutionary distributions of atomic and ionized Li species were presented and show good consistency with experimental CCD camera images. Simulation studies were carried out for single and repeated pellet injections at the outer mid-plane, and statistical uncertainty of ELM pacing rates triggering ELMs is discussed with regard to related injection conditions. It is found that the pressure locally caused by an ELM pacing pellet (with a diameter of 0.6 ∼ 0.7 mm) was 1.8–2.4 times its unperturbed magnitude in the EAST shots of interest. Accumulation from repeated pellet injections results in the rise of pedestal height at a high injection frequency and this effect becomes stronger with increasing pellet size. Pressure changes are also evident in a scenario of multiple small pellets per stroke, which could lead to a nonnegligible, probabilistic ELM triggering rate observed experimentally. The effects of other possible factors are also discussed. With the assumption that the ELM trigger rate of a Li pellet of 0.7 mm diameter is 100%, the predicted trigger rates are in good agreement with those observed in experiments. This work can help understand the statistically probabilistic behavior of ELM triggering efficiency observed in previous studies.